Russia may use Belarus for strikes on Ukraine's logistics routes - ISW

Russia and Belarus appear to be creating the preconditions to justify Russia launching drone strikes against Ukraine from Belarusian territory, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released Wednesday.

In particular, the Institute noted that the Belarusian side claimed to have "recorded" 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the international border with Belarus. It was also alleged that some instances of Ukrainian drones crossing the border were deliberate attempts to strike Belarusian border infrastructure.

"Belarusian territory would allow Russia to carry out continuous drone strikes on ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in western and northwestern Ukraine, which Russian drones currently cannot easily strike with high precision and heavy payloads. The ability of Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for strikes could allow Russian Shahed-type drones and cheaper Molniya drones to target the M-06 highway, which runs through western regions of Ukraine, including key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine and the railway connecting Poland and Ukraine. Russian forces already strike western regions of Ukraine from Russian territory, but launching drones from Belarus would allow Russian forces to use remotely piloted Shahed and Molniya drones, increasing their accuracy and ability to strike moving targets along Ukrainian GLOCs," the report said.

At the same time, it is noted that Belarus is unlikely to launch a ground invasion of Ukraine, and ISW has not observed or independently verified any buildup of Belarusian troops on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border sufficient for a ground invasion. Russia also lacks the reserves necessary to support Belarusian troops in the event of a ground invasion of Ukraine.