Power outages in Ukraine this summer may last from 2 to 8 hours or more under different scenarios – expert

 Scheduled electricity outages for households this summer could be applied rarely and for no more than two hours per day under an optimistic scenario, while under a pessimistic scenario they could last up to eight hours a day, and even longer in Kyiv and several regions, according to Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy and infrastructure programs at the Razumkov Center.

"Optimistic scenario: favorable weather conditions with a minimal number of extreme daytime temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and low intensity of attacks on critical energy infrastructure. With average consumption of about 12 GW, the deficit will not exceed 1 GW during evening peaks, which will be covered through imports and minor industrial restrictions. Hourly outage schedules for households may be applied rarely and for no more than two hours per day," Omelchenko wrote on Telegram on Tuesday.

According to him, the pessimistic scenario assumes a hot summer and a high intensity of strikes on key energy infrastructure facilities. In that case, the power deficit could reach up to 4 GW on certain days, and accordingly hourly outage schedules would last up to eight hours a day.

"The most vulnerable regions are all frontline areas, Odesa region, and the city of Kyiv, where hourly outage schedules and emergency outage schedules may be longer than the national average," Omelchenko said.

At the same time, he also presented a baseline scenario involving a hot summer and low intensity of aerial attacks on the energy sector.

"On certain days, consumption rises to 14 GW due to increased use of air-cooling devices. The deficit may reach 2-2.5 GW. Hourly outage schedules are applied for two to four hours per day during periods of extremely high temperatures," the director of energy and infrastructure programs at the Razumkov Center said.

The forecast given by former NPC Ukrenergo head Volodymyr Kudrytsky in an interview with RBC-Ukraine partially coincides with Omelchenko's forecast.

"Without attacks, everything will depend on the weather... For example, if temperatures hit +35 degrees Celsius and remain there for about three weeks, at some point the system simply will not cope and electricity restrictions will begin. But if there is no such prolonged heatwave, and for some reason the Russians stop attacking us..., then there is a chance to get through the summer without outages at all," Kudrytsky said.

According to him, electricity imports from abroad will not help cover the power deficit in the event of extreme temperature increases.

The former Ukrenergo head noted that no one can currently guarantee the complete absence of outages, but "everything could pass relatively mildly, for example with two-hour outages on certain days."