Some experts believe war in Ukraine follows protracted conflict scenario - Globsec survey

Presentation of the results of the expert survey "Seven Scenarios for the Security Situation Regarding Russia’s War in Ukraine for 2026-2027," prepared under the leadership of the Director of the Globsec Kyiv office Yulia Osmolovska, becomes a central event at the start of the second day of the Globsec security forum in Prague.

As Ihor Zhdanov, head of the Open Policy Foundation and participant in the conference, tells Interfax-Ukraine, the analytical report provides a generalized expert assessment of the security situation in Europe and Ukraine for the next two years. Globsec has released similar analytical products since 2022.

The main question discussed by forum participants is whether the world moves toward a peaceful settlement and cessation of hostilities in Ukraine or toward a long war of attrition.

According to a significant portion of those surveyed (32%), future events develop according to the "Protracted Conflict: War of Attrition with Internal Tensions and External Compensations" scenario.

Zhdanov, who participated in the survey as an expert, notes that this scenario is currently the most likely. Therefore, Ukraine primarily needs to increase its own economic and security capacity, and develop its defense-industrial complex.

The event features participation from Richard Shirreff, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and current chief foreign advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, Ian Brzezinski, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and Oleksiy Melnyk, Director of Foreign Policy and International Security Programs at the Razumkov Centre.

A total of 71 experts participated in the survey conducted by the Globsec Kyiv office.

Globsec is a Central European think tank and organizer of the annual Bratislava Forum, which has been held in Prague since 2024.

As reported, the first day of Globsec-2026 on Thursday covered the protection and restoration of Ukrainian infrastructure, health and rehabilitation of displaced persons and citizens from temporarily occupied territories, and the specifics of drone use in the war with Russia.