Kremlin continues to demand AFU’s withdrawal from Donbas, while Russia's situation on front has worsened – ISW
Moscow continues to demand the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the unoccupied part of Donbas as a condition for a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine, but Russian troops on the front in the spring of 2026 are performing worse than in 2025, when the Kremlin began to push this ultimatum, according to experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“Russian forces are performing worse on the battlefield in Spring 2026 than when the Kremlin emphasized its demand for Donetsk Oblast in 2025. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials began intensifying their demands for Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia does not control, especially the remainder of unoccupied Donetsk region, in early 2025, when the battlefield was more favorable to Russian forces than in spring 2026,” the ISW report reads.
It is noted that since then, Ukrainian forces have been increasing the economic, human, and material costs of the Russian war. Ukrainian forces have steadily increased the range, volume, and intensity of their long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and military installations to exploit the Kremlin’s inability to defend against Ukrainian strikes. In early 2026, Ukrainian forces significantly intensified their medium-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower, impairing Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations.
During the first four months of 2026, Russian troop advances in the theater of operations stalled at an average of 2.9 square kilometers per day, and in April 2026, Russian troops suffered net territorial losses.
As experts at the Institute for the Study of War note, Russian troops are simultaneously struggling with rising casualty rates, which recently exceeded the level of Russian troop recruitment in late 2025 and early 2026.
Kremlin is trying to create a false sense of political urgency among its negotiating partners by trying to force Ukraine to cede the unoccupied part of Donbas, which Russian forces have been unable to take on the battlefield. Ushakov is likely now attempting to justify the Kremlin’s refusal to participate in negotiations that do not acquiesce to the Kremlin’s long-held demands even though Russia’s stagnating battlefield performance is placing the Kremlin in a worse position to extract major political concessions. Ukrainian forces can and will continue to impose higher costs on Russian forces conducting offensive operations in Ukraine, particularly against the Fortress Belt as part of the ongoing Spring-Summer 2026 offensive that has failed to yield operationally-significant gains so far.
ISW also assesses that relinquishing control of the remaining unoccupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions would secure Russia’s control over the so-called fortress belt—a series of fortified cities that have served as the backbone of Ukraine’s defense in the region since 2014. This requirement also does not guarantee a peace agreement, the analysis states.
