Over 60% of Ukrainians convinced Russia will violate peace deal and attack again – KSF study
A majority of 54% of polled Ukrainians do not believe in the possibility of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the near future, specifically within 12 months, and 61.6% are convinced that Russia will violate any agreement and attack as soon as it is convenient, according to a sociological study commissioned by the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF).
Some 17.2% of respondents believe that both sides will try to comply with the agreement, 4.5% believe that both sides will try to violate it, and 1.4% believe that Ukraine will violate the agreement and attack Russia. Another 15.4% found it difficult to answer.
Some 26.7% of respondents believe in the possibility of signing a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the near future, while 19.3% were undecided.
In addition, the majority of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine’s victory: 36.3% answered "yes" and another 30% answered "rather yes". Some 13.6% answered "rather no" and 9.5% do not believe in victory. Another 10.6% found it difficult to answer.
The understanding of victory varies among respondents. Some 22.5% consider victory to be the expulsion of Russian troops beyond the line of contact as of February 23, 2022 (with occupied territories in Donbas and Crimea remaining occupied). Another 22.3% define victory as the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of borders as of 1991. Some 16.5% see victory as the end of the war even if the Russian army remains in territories occupied after February 24, 2022. Some 12.7% consider victory to be the destruction of the Russian army and promoting a rebellion or the collapse of Russia, while 9.5% favor the expulsion of Russian troops from all territories except occupied Crimea.
Opinions of Ukrainians regarding the minimum necessary conditions for concluding a peace agreement with Russia were also divided. Some 28.8% consider the liberation of Ukraine within the 1991 borders necessary, 27.5% within the borders of February 24, 2022, and 21.7% suggest fixing the borders along the front line at the time the agreement is concluded.
The full text of the study will be presented during the KSF on April 23.
The Razumkov Center conducted the poll on behalf of the KSF on April 2-8, 2026, using face-to-face interviews. Some 1,200 respondents aged 18 and over were polled in the government-controlled areas where no hostilities are taking place. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.9%.
