Majority of Ukrainians believe Russia may attack NATO, but Ukraine can strengthen alliance – KSF study

Two-thirds of Ukrainians believe Russia may attack NATO, and nearly the same number are convinced that Ukraine is capable of strengthening the Alliance, according to a sociological study conducted by the Razumkov Center for the Kyiv Security Forum on April 2-8.

At the same time, Ukrainian support for joining NATO and the EU has decreased slightly over the past two months, though it remains at a high level.

Specifically, 69% of respondents favor Ukraine joining the European Union, while 19.7% are against and 11.3% are undecided. In February 2026, support for EU membership stood at 83%, compared to 81.7% in September 2025 and 73.7% in September 2024. In November-December 2021, 55.6% supported joining the EU.

Opinions on the timeline for EU accession are divided: 20.5% expect entry within 3-5 years, another 20.5% within 5-10 years, and 13.9% believe it could happen within 1-3 years. Conversely, 13.9% believe Ukraine will never join the EU, and 9.3% expect it to take 10-20 years.

Regarding NATO, 59.3% would vote for membership in a referendum, while 25.7% would vote against and 15% are undecided. In February 2026, support for NATO entry was at 71.3%, while in September 2025 it was 68.5%. In late 2021, 47.8% supported joining.

Expectations for the NATO timeline are more cautious: 17.6% expect entry within 5-10 years, 13.8% within 3-5 years, and only 9.4% within 1-3 years. Nearly a quarter (23.4%) believe Ukraine will never join NATO.

Opinions on NATO’s ability to effectively defend itself against a Russian attack are split: 43.1% believe the Alliance is capable, 35.5% believe it is not, and 21.4% are undecided. However, a majority believe Russia may attack a NATO country: 16.8% say Russia definitely intends to, and 49.4% say it possibly intends to. Only 13.1% think Russia has no such plans.

A vast majority—68.6%—believe Ukraine can contribute to strengthening NATO security: 24.2% say this can happen now, and 44.4% say after the war ends. Only 15.9% believe Ukraine cannot make such a contribution.

Respondents identified the following areas for potential Ukrainian support: sharing air defense experience (47.5%), sharing combat tactics against Russian armed forces (46.5%), supplying Ukrainian-made drones (39.9%), sharing experience in maintaining and restoring critical infrastructure during wartime (30.1%), and supplying other Ukrainian-made weaponry (26.7%).

The full text of the study will be presented during the Kyiv Security Forum on April 23. The face-to-face survey included 1,200 respondents aged 18 and older across all government-controlled regions where active hostilities are not occurring. The theoretical margin of error does not exceed 2.9%.