Support for peace agreement referendum drops to 50% — KIIS survey

A relative majority of Ukrainians support the idea of holding a referendum on a peace agreement, though a downward trend is emerging, according to a poll conducted March 1–8 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The share of those supporting such an initiative fell from 55% in mid-January 2026 to 50% in March. Meanwhile, the proportion of those opposed rose from 32% to 40%.

KIIS noted that in a separate February survey, 57% of Ukrainians found the proposal to withdraw troops from Donbas in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe categorically unacceptable, while 36% were willing to approve it, albeit mostly reluctantly. Support for the referendum is significantly higher among those ready to approve the troop withdrawal (71%) compared to those categorically against it (39%).

Approximately 64% of respondents expressed a readiness to vote if a referendum were held: 31% said they would definitely participate, and 33% said they likely would. One-third (30%) indicated they likely or definitely would not vote. There were no significant differences in readiness to participate based on region, gender, or education level, though residents of smaller towns and rural areas (60%) and citizens over 60 (60%) showed lower engagement.

The poll highlighted that the wording of the question significantly affects results. When asked if they support peace through an agreement involving EU membership in 2027, territorial compromises, and reliable security guarantees, 61% responded positively. Even among those who categorically reject trading Donbas for security guarantees, 54% would vote "yes" if the question were framed this way.

"A positive referendum result can be obtained with a ‘correctly’ formulated question," the press release stated. KIIS warned that "packaging" difficult compromises in attractive language increases the likelihood of public approval but risks a crisis of legitimacy.

KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky emphasized that it remains unclear whether a referendum is a real scenario or a diplomatic maneuver. He warned of serious risks, including societal division, low turnout, and potential manipulation of the question’s wording, which could undermine the legitimacy of the outcome and trigger a social crisis.

The survey was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) with 1,003 respondents in government-controlled areas. The statistical margin of error does not exceed 4.1%.