UNHCR records decrease in intentions of Ukrainian refugees to return to Ukraine, but most would return within first year if safety guaranteed

The number of Ukrainian refugees intending to return home is decreasing as the duration of displacement grows, yet many remain ready to return immediately once the security situation improves, stated UNHCR Representative in Ukraine Bernadette Castel-Hollingsworth in an exclusive interview with the Interfax-Ukraine agency.

She reported that UNHCR has just completed its seventh round of the Intentions Survey across 20 European countries, the results of which will be released shortly.

"We see that the number of people intending to return is decreasing. This is not unique to Ukraine. I have worked in many parts of the world, and whenever a displacement situation lasts for years, return intentions diminish," Castel-Hollingsworth noted.

At the same time, the UNHCR Representative emphasized that refugees express a strong desire to return if the situation improves.

"What refugees tell us is that they are very eager to return if the situation improves. And as soon as the situation gets better, they will return immediately," she said.

Castel-Hollingsworth noted that once peace and security guarantees are achieved, vulnerable groups—the elderly, women, persons with disabilities, and similar profiles—will likely be the first to return to Ukraine. Regarding the return of men who have left Ukraine, she refrained from predicting figures or trends, as this will largely depend on the lifting of martial law and matters of conscription and mobilization, which are the prerogative of the Ukrainian government.

Responding to the observation that the longer people remain abroad, the lower the probability of return, Castel-Hollingsworth confirmed: "It is the same everywhere. You know, it is the same with Syrian refugees. I worked for many years in Africa. You always see that the longer the displacement lasts, the less likely the return becomes. But still, many refugees from Ukraine who participated in our survey say they are very eager to return."

The main obstacles to return, according to the UNHCR Representative, remain safety and related factors.

"Refugees name three main things—and internally displaced persons in Ukraine say the same. Most importantly—safety (which at a minimum means a ceasefire, and preferably a just peace). Besides safety, they name three key elements: housing in first place, livelihoods (the ability to find a job), and access to services—primarily schools for those with children, hospitals for the elderly, and similar necessities," she explained.

Castel-Hollingsworth added that according to surveys, 62% of internally displaced persons report homes that are destroyed, damaged, or located in occupied territory, which constitutes a massive obstacle.

Regarding the potential number of returns, she noted that UNHCR is considering various scenarios.

"According to published research, depending on the scenarios for the end of the war / ceasefire, between 2.3 and 3.5 million refugees could return. The exact figure depends on many factors. Of course, in a scenario without a ceasefire or lasting peace, the number of returns in 2026 will remain very low," the UNHCR representative said, citing a report available at: https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/117421.

She emphasized that the agency is actively preparing for potential mass returns of people.

"When conditions become safe, refugees usually return very quickly—most in the first year. They do not wait long; as soon as safety is guaranteed, a large number of people return almost immediately. It is estimated that about 1.4 million refugees have already returned and stayed for at least three months, with over 300,000 heading to places other than their original homes," Castel-Hollingsworth reported.

This is why, according to her, UNHCR is focusing on long-term solutions for internally displaced persons in collective centers—this will directly facilitate the return of refugees as well.

"The work we are planning with the Ministry of Social Policy and regional authorities regarding people currently in collective centers will directly support future refugee returns. That is why we are moving toward long-term solutions in parallel with emergency response," she explained.

The UNHCR Representative confirmed that the agency will maintain emergency capacity for immediate response to the needs of those affected by shelling and evacuated families, while simultaneously promoting sustainable solutions to complement the efforts of the Ukrainian authorities.