AFU conducting local counterattacks along administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions – ISW
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting localized and ad hoc counterattacks near the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions, likely to take advantage of the recent blocking of Starlink and Telegram terminals belonging to the Russian occupiers, the USA-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on Thursday, February 12.
“Geolocated footage published on February 12 shows Russian strikes against static Ukrainian positions east of the Haichur River, including east of and in southern Dobropillia and north of Varvarivka (both northwest of Huliaipole). This footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely maintained control of these positions prior to February 12 and are likely using localized counterattacks to reconnect these frontline positions to each other. Russian forces likely bypassed these Ukrainian positions during infiltration missions to exaggerate the extent of Russian gains in the area,” the message reads.
ISW reports that it began monitoring reports of limited and localized Ukrainian counteroffensives near the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions on February 11.
It is noted that the Russian occupiers initially assessed these counteroffensives as a large-scale "counteroffensive operation" by Ukraine, but Ukrainian and some other Russian military sources subsequently indicated that Ukraine’s counteroffensives are limited in scale and duration. Also, citing their own sources, the Institute’s analysts report that Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive north and northwest of the town of Huliaipole in Zaporizhia region, but the situation on the ground is unclear due to deteriorating communications between Russian troops on the front line.
“Ukrainian tactical counterattacks in this area are likely an opportunistic response to favorable battlefield conditions. A senior NATO official told the BBC’s Russia service on February 11 that at least some of the Ukrainian battlefield successes in eastern Zaporizhia region are due to SpaceX’s efforts to prevent Russian forces from using Starlink terminals in early February 2026,” the analysts report.
ISW also notes that the Russian leadership’s decision to block the social network Telegram, along with SpaceX’ restrictions on the use of Russia’s Starlink, will seriously impact Russian communications in the near future. “Ukrainian counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia regions border area likely seek to exploit these recent Russian communication and command-and-control (C2) challenges,” the message reads.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the OSINT project of DeepState have not yet reported any counteroffensive actions by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
