Hryvnia rate in 2009 to be UAH 7.5-9/$1, says Raiffeisen Bank Aval

The hryvnia exchange rate in 2009 is expected at UAH 7.50-9 per $1, Volodymyr Lavrenchuk, the board chairman in Raiffeisen Bank Aval, forecasts.

"There are no macroeconomic grounds for a rate of UAH 15/$1 or even UAH 12 per $1. We set a rate of UAH 7.5-9/$1 in the various budgets of Raiffeisen Bank Aval. We consider, such rate will be maintained for the whole of 2009," he told journalists.

Along with that, rate dynamics will depend on measures taken by the authorities to stabilize the situation in the country.

According to Lavrenchuk, the critical level of credit nonpayment for the Ukrainian banking system will be 15%. By early 2009, the share of problem credits was 2.5% in the general system, and 2.7% in Raiffeisen Bank Aval. Lavrenchuk said that from the point of view of nonpayment, the critical rate point had been passed: it was reached at a rate of UAH 7/$1.

The maximum level of deposit outflow has been practically reached, Lavrenchuk said.

"It could be another 1-2% per month in the whole banking system within one to three months, if the number of banks which do not pay deposits grows," the banker said.