Active interventions of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) could return the hryvnia exchange rate to UAH 7.7-7.8/$1 from UAH 8.33/$1 after trading on Friday, Oleksandr Okhrymenko, an advisor to the board chairman of Kyiv-based Ukrgasbank, has said.
"The further fate of the hryvnia exchange rate mainly depends on the NBU's interventions on the currency market... Exporters are not and won't be in a hurry to sell foreign currency, so only the NBU could be the key seller of the currency. If interventions were active, it would not be difficult to return the dollar exchange rate to UAH 7.7-7.8/$1. Otherwise, the guideline for the dollar exchange rate in the near future would be UAH 8.2-8.5/$1," the expert said.
Okhrymenko said that the key driver that propelled the hryvnia depreciation last week were money received by depositors of the troubled Rodovid Bank, which was recapitalized by the government.
"The unblocking of deposits of Rodovid Bank's depositors fueled demand on cash currency as the public tried to convert money from deposits into foreign currency... The started process of hryvnia devaluation bolstered demand on currency, as legal entities operating in the shadow economy joined individuals," he said.
The expert also said that the hryvnia weakening was in the light of a cut in remainders on correspondent accounts of banks.
"Actually, due to the flow of funds from the banking sector to the cash market, the hryvnia has depreciated," he said.
Experts of the Credit-Rating agency in their analytical survey said that high devaluation expectations in the country are seen.
"Despite all measures taken by the regulator, speculative currency expectations in the country remain high, which could pressure the currency exchange rate, including by the public," reads the document.
The agency said that the NBU had to sell $1.85 billion in Q2, 2009 to support the exchange rate, while in Q1, 2090 $4.42 billion was sold.
"The share of credits to the public in the national currency was 30% of total debts of individuals, which is evidence of the large dependability of the quality of banks' assets on the currency exchange policy of the state," the expert said.
The survey says that the impact of the payments to depositors of toxic banks on the currency market is restricted, as the NBU cut banks' own abilities to use obligatory reserves and their own currency.
