The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) currently sees more risks of further downward revision to its forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product than opportunities for growth, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said.
"We see the economic slowing, really clearly, since August, with the intensification of the strikes on economic infrastructure. So it used to be mostly energy, but now it’s also ports, the port blockage plus the Black Sea blockage plus the attacks on logistics, on warehouses, on manufacturing capacities and so on," she said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, commenting on assessments by the Ukrainian government, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and independent analysts regarding the slowdown in economic growth.
Commenting on the forecasts, Renaud-Basso said that the central bank had developed several different scenarios, but at this point the EBRD sees risks of further deterioration outweighing the risks of an improvement in the indicators.
As reported, the EBRD downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 to 1.5% and in 2027 to 2.5%.
Economy and Environment Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko said he allows for a downward revision of the 2027 GDP growth forecast by 0.3-0.5 percentage points from the already incorporated pessimistic plan, from 1.3% to 0.8-1%, and for 2026 to 0.5% from the current forecast of 1.6%.
In addition, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowered its estimate for real GDP growth this year to 1.1-1.2%, compared with its estimate of 1.8% at the end of July this year.
