The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly on a scale where readings from 0 to 50 are negative and those from 50 to 100 are positive, fell to 48.2 in September 2026 from 48.3 a month earlier and 50.4 a year earlier.
"The further deterioration of the security situation, the destruction of logistics, production and warehouse facilities, rising business costs driven by higher fuel prices, the limited domestic supply of goods and services, a shortage of skilled labor, and a slight worsening of exchange rate expectations constrained businesses’ economic activity," the NBU explained the result on its website.
Positive factors included a stable energy supply situation, a strong harvest and the development of new logistics routes.
Among other things, industrial companies resumed positive assessments of their performance amid an improvement in the situation in manufacturing and stability in the energy sector: the sectoral index in September was 51.0, compared with 47.3 in August this year and 49.1 in September last year. Unlike the previous month, industrial companies expected an increase in the volume of products manufactured and new orders for products, including export orders. An increase in inventories of raw materials and supplies was also expected. At the same time, subdued assessments of the volume of work in progress (unfulfilled orders) and inventories of finished products persisted.
After six months of positive sentiment, construction companies gave a restrained assessment of their current business activity, taking into account the suspension of state funding for road and infrastructure reconstruction, the seasonal nature of construction work and rising expenses: the sectoral index fell to 48.8 in September from 50.7 in August and 50.0 in September 2025. The National Bank said construction companies continued to expect an increase in construction volumes, new orders and purchases of raw materials and supplies, although at a slower pace. Respondents expected growth in purchases of contractors' services to slow amid further increases in their costs. At the same time, subdued assessments regarding the availability of contractors eased.
Retail and wholesale trade companies had the most subdued expectations among the sectors surveyed regarding their current activity due to the continued destruction of warehouse complexes, as well as costly and complicated logistics: the sectoral index fell to 45.9 in September from 47.5 in August this year and 54.0 in September 2025. Trading companies expected further declines in turnover and purchases of goods for sale, as well as inventories/stocks of goods for sale. Respondents expected trading margins to decline further.
Service-sector companies also gave a more subdued assessment of their performance, taking into account further destruction of logistics and warehouse infrastructure, higher fuel prices and a shortage of skilled workers: the sectoral index stood at 47.3 in September, compared with 49.5 in August and 49.4 in September 2025. Respondents assessed the volume of services provided as being at the previous month's level, while, unlike in August, they expected a decline in the volume of new orders and the volume of services in progress.
"Most respondents in all sectors expected growth rates to accelerate for both purchase prices/prices of raw materials and supplies and prices/tariffs for their own products/services, as well as the cost of goods purchased for resale," the NBU added.
The labor market situation remains mixed: only construction companies continued to expect an increase in their total number of employees, while companies in other sectors expected staff reductions, most notably in the services sector.
The monthly business survey was conducted from September 3 to 22, 2026. A total of 588 companies participated. Of the companies surveyed, 43.0% were industrial companies, 25.9% were service-sector companies, 24.7% were trading companies and 6.5% were construction companies; 31.6% of respondents were large companies, 29.1% medium-sized and 39.3% small. Among the companies surveyed, 34.5% conduct both export and import operations, 8.2% conduct only export operations, 18.5% only import operations, and 38.8% do not conduct foreign economic operations.
