The Ministry of Economy and Environment of Ukraine may revise downward by 0.3-0.5 percentage points the pessimistic gross domestic product (GDP) growth scenario included in the 2027 state budget, from 1.3% to 0.8-1%, Economy and Environment Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine.
According to him, after starting the year with a forecast of 2.4% growth, the ministry revised it to 1.6% in mid-2026, while growth is expected to slow by 0.5% in the second half of 2026.
"Unfortunately, we see that as a result of the second half of 2026, we will see growth slow by 0.5%. For the year, our largest revenues come from the agricultural sector because we had a good harvest. But if systematic attacks on grain elevators and infrastructure begin, this could also change," Kravchenko said.
Regarding shelling, the minister said it is difficult to separately assess its impact because of disruptions and downtime at enterprises, but one hour of downtime caused by attacks costs the economy about UAH 2 billion. At the same time, there are currently no precise statistics on businesses that have been shut down or relocated because of attacks due to hourly changes in the situation. Regarding capital expenditures, Kravchenko described the postponement of their financing from September to December as optimization aimed at focusing on concessional lending for major reconstruction projects and compensation for property losses.
As reported, the Economy Ministry had already considered a scenario in which this year's real GDP growth forecast would deteriorate to 0.5% from the current 1.6% due to intensified Russian attacks. Kravchenko said GDP contracted by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, the first decline since 2023, and growth slowed to about 0% in August due to export blockages and the destruction of logistics infrastructure.
Earlier reports said the government had forecast in the 2027-2029 Budget Declaration that GDP would grow by 1.6% this year and accelerate to 4.5% in 2027 and 5.3% in 2028. However, the government's 2027 draft state budget is based on a pessimistic GDP growth scenario of 1.3%. The government initially forecast growth of 2.4% this year, then revised it to 1.6%, while the Economy Ministry now allows for a deterioration of the forecast to 0.5%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, citing Russian attacks on ports and vessels in the Black Sea, lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth to 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, from 2.2% and 4%, respectively, in its forecast at the beginning of June this year.
