Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year will be lower than the current forecast of 1.6%, due to intensified Russian shelling; a likely scenario in which it will amount to about 0.5% is being considered, Minister of Economy and Environment Oleksandr Kravchenko said.
"We are considering possible scenarios in which the additional decline will exceed 1 percentage point. In other words, we will grow by 0.5% – this is the figure we are currently reviewing within the Ministry of Economy. We are regularly reviewing the situation," he said at the Forbes Ukraine Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
The minister said that at the beginning of the year, the growth forecast stood at 2.4%, but was revised downward to 1.6% later in the year.
Kravchenko said that in Q1 2026, GDP contracted by 0.6% – the first decline since 2023. Despite some optimism in the second half of the year, key challenges – the blocking of exports and the disruption of logistics due to Russian shelling – are putting pressure on the economy, which the minister predicts will intensify.
"While we saw 4% year-over-year growth in July, we're already seeing around 0% in August. All these problems, which we are well aware of – the blocking of exports and the disruption of logistics – are already putting significant pressure on businesses, and we expect that, unfortunately, this will only intensify in the second half of the year," he added.
As previously reported, due to the disruption in industry and trade and the deterioration of business expectations, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) lowered its estimate for real GDP growth this year to 1.1-1.2%, down from the previous forecast of 1.8%.
In its Budget Resolution for 2027-2029, the government projected GDP growth of 1.6% this year and an acceleration to 4.5% and 5.3% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. However, the government's draft state budget for 2027 is based on a pessimistic scenario of 1.3% GDP growth with a deficit of 15% of GDP.
