Most bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine expect the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to raise its key policy rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 16% per annum, following its September 17 meeting.
"We expect the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its key policy rate by 50 basis points on September 17, to 16.0%. The main reason for this decision is accelerating inflation and intensifying inflationary risks," said Serhiy Kolodiy, chief macroeconomic analysis expert at Raiffeisen Bank's analytical research department.
Inflation accelerated to 8.1% year-on-year in August, from 7.7% in July and 7.2% in June, coming in somewhat above the central bank's forecast. Intensifying Russian strikes on energy infrastructure are creating additional pressure on the supply of goods, widening the currency deficit, and raising inflation expectations among the public and businesses, while supply chain disruptions caused by the attacks are an additional inflationary factor.
Raising the rate would also help preserve the appeal of hryvnia savings and ease pressure on the currency market amid active budget spending and a significant inflow of external financing, according to Kolodiy.
Inna Provotar, head of management accounting and business analysis at OTP Bank, also considers a rate increase to 16% possible.
"Such a step would be justified given the current inflationary pressure and the need to curb further price growth and stabilize inflation expectations. At the same time, in our view, this would be more of a preventive tightening of monetary policy aimed at strengthening macro-financial stability, rather than the start of a prolonged rate-hike cycle," she said.
A-Bank deputy board chairman and risk management head Oleh Trybulkin also expects a 0.5 percentage point rate increase, citing incomplete transmission of the previous rate hike into hryvnia deposit yields, which rose less than the key rate itself.
"An additional argument in favor of a hike is the NBU's own outlook: in its July macro forecast, the regulator projected the key rate rising to 16% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and holding at that level in the first quarter of 2027. Not enough has changed since the last meeting to significantly alter that trajectory," Trybulkin explained.
Trybulkin cited inflation dynamics, deteriorating logistics due to the deliberate destruction of warehouses, the state of the power system, and the situation in the Middle East, given its impact on oil prices, as key factors for the central bank's upcoming decisions.
Despite the arguments in favor of a rate hike, Globus Bank board chairman Serhiy Mamedov currently expects the rate to be held at 15.5%.
Monthly inflation could reach about 1-1.5% in September and 1.5-1.7% in October, according to his estimate, with possible acceleration driven by the effects of Russian attacks, additional business costs for logistics and energy supply, rising fuel and transport costs, seasonal price growth, and the general pressure of the wartime economy on production costs.
"That's why, for now, we're leaning toward the more conservative scenario: the National Bank could hold the key rate at 15.5% in September. This would give the regulator a chance to assess how severe the fall acceleration in inflation turns out to be, what the consequences of the recent attacks will be, and whether the situation will require additional monetary response at upcoming meetings," Mamedov said.
A 0.5 percentage point rate hike could be a preemptive step to curb inflationary pressure and currency demand, in his view, though excessive monetary tightening could constrain lending activity. A possible adjustment to the yield on the NBU's three-month deposit certificates, whose maximum rate currently stands at 19%, will also matter for the deposit market.
Radabank capital markets department director Serhiy Hnezdilov also sees two scenarios — holding the rate at 15.5% or raising it to 16% — but considers the latter more likely.
"The case for a hike has better odds, because inflationary pressure from rising fuel costs has already been present since spring, and now factors like destroyed warehouses, reconfigured logistics, and various risks are adding to that. So we're leaning toward the 16.0% scenario," he said.
The National Bank cut its key policy rate from 15.5% to 15% per annum in late January 2026 and held it there for three consecutive meetings, before raising it to 15.5% per annum on July 30, as previously reported.
