Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with April-June 2025, according to an updated estimate released Wednesday by the State Statistics Service (Ukrstat), which had previously estimated growth at 0.6% in early August.
"The change in the real GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2026 resulted from the refinement of operational data, including administrative data from the State Treasury (reports on the execution of the state and local budgets), the receipt of expanded balance of payments data, as well as new data from the NBU on financial corporations, insurance companies, pawnshops, the Pension Fund, and the Compulsory State Social Unemployment Insurance Fund, along with additional data from services statistics, specifically regarding postal and courier activities and telecommunications," Ukrstat explained on its website.
According to Ukrstat, compared with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, real GDP grew 0.3%, versus a previous estimate of 0.4%.
Nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2026 totaled UAH 2.3057 trillion, compared with UAH 2.0472 trillion in the first quarter, Ukrstat said.
As previously reported, Ukraine's real GDP contracted 0.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, according to the statistics agency, and fell 0.7% from the previous quarter.
Ukraine's GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% contraction in 2022, the first year of the full-scale invasion. Ukrstat estimated GDP growth at 3.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, 2.1% in the third quarter, 0.7% in the second quarter, and 0.8% in the first quarter.
The National Bank raised its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 back to 1.8% in late July, from 1.3% in its April Inflation Report, citing expectations of significant external financing that will go toward domestic defense industry production. The NBU expects GDP growth to accelerate to 2.1% in the third quarter, 4.2% in the fourth quarter, and 5.2% in the first quarter of next year.
The IMF lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth this year to 1.0-1.6% in June-July, down from 1.8-2.5%, having estimated it at 2% in its April World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The Cabinet of Ministers lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6% from the 2.4% on which the 2026 state budget was based when it was approved at the end of last year.
