NBU estimates logistics disruption from Russian strikes adds 0.4-0.6 pp to annual inflation
The National Bank of Ukraine's baseline scenario, updated at the end of July — which raised the 2026 inflation forecast from 9.4% to 10.0% and the 2027 forecast from 6.5% to 6.9% — did not account for new attacks on logistics infrastructure and its destruction, which is producing a modest additional rise in consumer prices, Deputy NBU Governor Volodymyr Lepushynsky said in a column for Interfax-Ukraine.
"By our current estimates, the additional contribution from logistics restructuring and the associated cost increases could amount to about 0.4-0.6 percentage points of annual inflation by the end of 2026," he said.
Most of this effect will show up in the fall, according to Lepushynsky.
"At the same time, we're not talking about a sharp price spike: the effect will be spread out over time and partly held back by competitive pressures and weaker demand," he said.
Damage to a warehouse or distribution center does not automatically translate into the full loss being passed on to shelf prices, he explained, since logistics and storage account for about 8% of the average consumer price, and competition limits how much of the additional costs businesses can pass on to final prices.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year in July from 7.2% in June, Lepushynsky noted. Preliminary estimates show it continued accelerating in August, broadly in line with the NBU's expectations for price dynamics in the second half of the year, though inflation came in somewhat higher than the July forecast's trajectory, he said.