Ukraine’s basic annual need for external financing remains at around $50 billion, with the previously unmet need for 2027 estimated at $32.6 billion, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said in an interview with Euronews.
"We haven’t had a situation like this since 2022; we really suffered from the shortage of liquidity. Right now, we are getting far too near to the same scenario we had in 2022," the minister said.
He has warned that the country may have to cut non-military spending unless it can secure funding from its allies, as he urged European ministers to "think outside the box" as Kyiv faces another winter of Russian escalation.
"We already see some liquidity issues, and we envisage some shortages in our budget… It means we may have to postpone some payments not related to the war because of a lack of liquidity. There will be consequences," Marchenko said.
He said that the impact could be felt at the local level, particularly when it comes to building shelters and constructing infrastructure.
Marchenko said he is working on a new budget on the assumption that the war will continue into 2027, with an estimated funding shortfall of $32.6 billion to be covered. He said the IMF, which visited Kyiv this week, sees similar numbers
"The war has intensified very quickly. We realise that ourselves. It is a totally different reality compared with last month, with the recent attacks on our logistics. We expect a very hard winter. Escalation means we have to find the means to survive it," he said.
He urged European ministers to think creatively about solutions and consider a new Ukrainian plan to tap into approximately $300 billion of frozen Russian assets. The plan was rejected by EU ministers last December as they struggled to bridge their differences, with a EUR 90 billion loan jointly financed decided instead.
Marchenko welcomed the move by a group of EU countries led by Sweden revived the plan.
He said the new Ukrainian plan, which would shift custodianship of the assets currently held in Belgium, had introduced "totally new elements" to mitigate the legal risks for the Belgian government and Euroclear, which holds the assets.
"We want to discuss it; the plan creates new conditions where it is not the responsibility of Belgium to face court disputes with Russia, but the joint responsibility of the 27," he said.
