Russia’s war against Ukraine could end closer to the end of this decade, and EU taxpayers will pay somewhere between half a trillion and a trillion euros in war-related costs because of the EU’s reluctance to defeat Russia, Yevhen Hlibovytsky, co-founder and CEO of the Frontier Institute, said at the Alpbach European Forum.
"Are Europeans ready to stand up to Russia? In my view, the answer is no. That’s exactly what’s making this war so protracted… Europeans are ready to pay for the financial losses and reconstruction of Ukraine, instead of making Russia pay," he said at a panel discussion titled "Ukraine as Europe’s Stress Test."
Hlibovytsky said the situation looks like Russia attacks, Europeans pay for it, and Russia remains unpunished.
"Are you guys ultimately rich? Do you have endless resources, reserves? I’m not surprised there’s so much political protest on the periphery," the Frontier Institute co-founder said, describing his view of the situation.
Without significant change, he said, Europe is heading toward a deficit of security and trust. "I ask Austrians, Germans, French people and everyone else: can your political system withstand this, survive this? That’s the challenge," he added.
He pointed to declining trust in European institutions, which undermines their effectiveness — otherwise, he said, radical parties would not be such strong contenders for election victories, as is now happening.
In these conditions, Hlibovytsky said, the EU should turn the European integration process it currently has with Ukraine into a two-way street, rather than the one-way street it is now, and stop looking down on Ukraine.
"It took Russia attacking Ukraine for the EU to offer a path to membership. And I ask myself: what’s changed? Has Ukraine improved in terms of reforms or anything like that? No, it’s hypocrisy. EU membership was offered as a consolation prize for the lack of a security solution," Hlibovytsky said.
He said the EU still has the institutional capacity to become a security bloc, and that Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president has also forced Europeans to take a more sober view of security issues, but this needs to happen faster — citing the explosive-laden drone at Leipzig airport, and the closure of the Russian House in Berlin in response, as further confirmation of this.
"Russia feels impunity because Europe is weak. This is a path to suffering. This is a path to enormous efforts by European taxpayers, who will ultimately pay far more. And the $300 billion (in frozen Russian assets) at Euroclear is small change compared to how much this will cost," the Frontier Institute CEO said.
He stressed that the EU still lacks sober judgment about the threat posed by regimes such as Russia and China.
"Ultimately, I can’t be more French than the French. I can’t be more German than the Germans. I can’t be more Austrian than the Austrians. That’s not my job. But I want it understood that if we keep dying and paying in blood, one day the EU will stab us in the back by striking a compromise with Moscow that allows the Russian empire to survive," Hlibovytsky concluded.
