The Ministry of Economy and Environment will revise downward its baseline forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026, which previously stood at 1-3%, due to the consequences of Russian shelling and restrictions on export potential.
"We are actually in the process of revising [the GDP forecast for the current year]. The baseline forecast for GDP growth this year was around 1.3%. We are now revising it downward. The impact of Russian shelling is estimated at up to 0.5% of the GDP growth we currently expect this year," Minister of Economy and Environment Oleksandr Kravchenko said during the event "Top Managers who keep the country afloat. Dialogues with NV" in Kyiv on Wednesday.
He noted that due to the destruction of energy infrastructure, Ukraine began 2026 with a 0.6% decline in GDP in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the economy quickly offset this decline, resulting in modest growth for the first half of the year, which continues today. However, further growth is being held back by the destruction of energy and logistics infrastructure and the blockage of ports.
Kravchenko said it is important to prepare for a difficult winter and be ready for "the worst-case scenarios."
"We [the government] are trying to anticipate all possible scenarios and prepare for the worst," he said.
According to Kravchenko, the current task for the Ukrainian economy is to support businesses in potential crisis situations, to the extent that budgetary constraints allow, while also maintaining a focus on future recovery.
The minister added that, to support businesses, the Ministry of Economy, together with the Ministry of Finance and the Verkhovna Rada, is working on expanding preferential lending programs for larger enterprises next year and increasing the scope of war risk insurance, which will require the allocation of budget funds and international aid.
As reported, non-governmental analysts estimate the potential negative impact of the blockade of the Greater Odesa ports on Ukraine's GDP to range from -0.6% to -0.9% of the economy's output.
Regarding the forecast for the current year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced in late July that it had revised its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 back to 1.8%, the level it had projected in January, after revising it downward to 1.3% in April.
In June-July, the IMF lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth this year to 1.0-1.6% from 1.8-2.5%, whereas in the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) it had estimated it at 2%, and in the range of 1.8-2.5% when the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement was approved in late February.
The Cabinet of Ministers lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6% from 2.4%, the figure on which the 2026 state budget was based when it was approved late last year. Under an optimistic scenario, which assumes the war will end by 2027, GDP growth next year could reach 4.5%, while under a less optimistic scenario, it could be 1.3%.
In early June, the ICU Investment Group downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2026 to 0.8%, down from its previous estimate of 1.2% in December.
The EBRD, in turn, lowered its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 from 2.5% to 2.2%.
