Over half of export-bound harvest may stay in Ukraine – ministry
More than half of the volume of agricultural products planned for export in the 2026/27 season (July-June) could remain in Ukraine if problems with export logistics are not resolved, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said.
The estimate was voiced during a meeting between ministry representatives and diplomatic representatives of EU countries, Norway, the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the ministry's press service reported.
In the 2026/27 season, Ukraine is expected to export about 64.4 million tonnes of agricultural products, or an average of 5.4 million tonnes per month. In August, monthly exports are expected to amount to about 1.6 million tonnes.
"Going forward, alternative routes will gradually be restored, but their throughput capacity may increase to no more than 2.9 million tonnes per month. As a result, the total volume of exports may amount to only about 29.6 million tonnes," the statement said.
"Without the ability to sell the harvested grain, farmers lose the liquidity needed to cover operating expenses: paying wages, settling payments for leased land shares, and purchasing fuel and fertilizers. This puts the 2027 sowing campaign at risk, primarily for small and medium-sized enterprises," the press service quoted Minister Taras Vysotsky as saying.
According to him, the inability to fully export grain from Ukraine threatens global food security, as Ukraine remains one of the key suppliers of grains and oilseeds to countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Accordingly, a halt in production and exports from the country will inevitably lead to food shortages and a spike in prices on global markets.
According to the ministry, as early as November, the shortage of storage capacity could reach 11 million tonnes, while unsold stocks worth more than EUR 10.8 billion will remain blocked.
According to Vysotsky, to prevent a collapse and avoid the chaotic redirection of grain flows to the EU's domestic market, Ukraine has asked the EU to provide a EUR 220 million grant that would not be provided directly to farmers but would be used to compensate interest rates and partially cover bank risks under preferential lending, in particular through an expansion of the "5-7-9%" program.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy's estimate, this grant would help attract EUR 4 billion in bank loans to the agricultural sector at an interest rate of no more than 10% per year.
The meeting participants agreed to urgently work on launching the proposed mechanism through the Ukraine Facility instrument and involving EU guarantee institutions in the coming weeks, before the autumn peak in demand for storage capacity.