Consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 0.3% in July 2026, following a 0.1% decline in June and increases of 0.9% in May and 1.4% in April, the State Statistics Service said Monday.
The statistics agency recalled that prices declined by 0.2% in July 2025. Therefore, year-over-year inflation increased to 7.7% in July 2026 from 7.2% in June, but remained below 8.2% at the end of May.
Core inflation declined to 0.3% in July 2026 from 0.5% in June and 0.7% in May. Since core inflation was also 0.3% in July 2025, the year-over-year rate remained at 8.1%.
As reported, inflation in Ukraine jumped to 26.6% in the first year of Russia’s full-scale aggression, after which it fell to 5.1% in 2023. It rose again to 12% the following year, but was brought down to 8% in 2025, partly due to the National Bank’s relatively tight monetary policy.
At the end of July, the National Bank (NBU) downgraded its forecast for inflation in Ukraine in 2026 from 9.4% in its previous April forecast to 10.0%, and for 2027 from 6.5% to 6.9%.
"In recent months, stronger underlying price pressures have shown signs of becoming a sustained trend due to rising business costs, primarily for logistics, labor and energy resources. Inflation expectations were generally stable, but remained elevated," the regulator said.
According to the updated schedule of the projected inflation trajectory, the revision was mainly driven by a reassessment of the pace of growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the pace of inflation decline next year. Whereas the NBU had previously expected inflation of 8.2% in the first quarter of 2027, it now expects 9.1%, while for the second quarter the corresponding figures are 7.5% and 8.2%.
The core inflation forecast was revised upward even more significantly: for this year, from 7.2% to 9.2%, and for next year, from 4.3% to 5.1%.
