Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex accounts for around 1.4 percentage points of the 1.8% growth projected for the country’s real GDP in 2026, National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Governor Andriy Pyshnyy has said.
"We’re seeing lending volumes grow, and plans are now being drawn up to localize production capacity. The defense-industrial complex is increasingly becoming a tangible driver, even against the backdrop of the negative effects caused by the ongoing Russian air terror," he said at a briefing on Thursday.
The National Bank governor stressed that developing the defense-industrial complex should receive maximum support from both the regulator and the banking system as a whole.
The NBU raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 real GDP growth to 1.8% from 1.3%, returning it to the level of its January forecast, as previously reported.
The regulator estimates that real GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, after falling 0.6% in the first quarter. A loosening of fiscal policy, the localization of weapons production and a larger harvest than last year are expected to support the economy’s recovery in the second half of the year.
The National Bank expects economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2027, while it lowered its 2028 forecast to 3% from 3.7%.
