The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 back to 1.8%, the level it projected in January after lowering the forecast to 1.3% in April.
"Easier fiscal policy, a substantial economic boost from directing part of external financing toward the localization of weapons production, as well as larger harvests than last year, will contribute to a revival in economic activity in the second half of the year," NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy said at a briefing on Thursday.
He specified that, according to the National Bank’s estimates, real GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in the second quarter after contracting by 0.6% in the first quarter, driven by improvements in the power system and increased government spending amid reduced uncertainty over external financial assistance.
More robust economic growth continues to be constrained by the consequences of Russia’s intensified attacks on logistics infrastructure, including the blockade of ports, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure and business facilities, the NBU added.
For 2027, the National Bank, as in its April forecast, expects economic growth to accelerate to 2.8%, supported by investment in production capacity, stabilization of the energy sector, higher agricultural harvests, and resilient consumer demand.
The forecast for 2028 was revised downward to 3.0% from 3.7% in the April Inflation Report.
"The course of the full-scale war remains the key risk to inflation trends and economic development; however, further developments in the Middle East could also have a significant impact," the NBU said.
As for nominal GDP, the central bank improved its forecast for this year to UAH 10.065 trillion from UAH 10.030 trillion, and for next year to UAH 11.220 trillion from UAH 11.170 trillion.
As reported, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% contraction in 2022, the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Nominal GDP amounted to UAH 8.931 trillion in 2025.
In June-July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth this year to 1.0-1.6% from 1.8-2.5%. In its April World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF projected growth at 2.0%, while at the time it approved the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program at the end of February, it had forecast growth of 1.8-2.5%.
The Cabinet of Ministers lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.4%, the figure on which the 2026 state budget approved at the end of last year was based. Under the optimistic scenario, which assumes the war ends before 2027, GDP growth next year is projected at 4.5%, while under the less optimistic scenario it is expected to reach 1.3%.
