The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2026 from 9.4%, projected in April, to 10.0%, and for 2027 from 6.5% to 6.9%.
"In recent months, the heightening of underlying price pressures has taken on signs of a persistent uptrend because of rising business costs, primarily for logistics, wages, and energy. Inflation expectations generally remained sustainable, although they continued to be elevated," the regulator said in a press release on Thursday.
According to the release, the forecast for core inflation was revised upward even more significantly: from 7.2% to 9.2% for this year and from 4.3% to 5.1% for next year.
The National Bank recalled that consumer inflation slowed to 7.2% in June, as expected, primarily due to increased supplies of unprocessed food products. At the same time, core inflation continued to accelerate, reaching 8.1% and exceeding the trajectory projected by the NBU.
According to the central bank’s estimates, consumer inflation resumed accelerating in July, while core inflation continued to increase.
"This dynamic will be driven by expanded fiscal stimulus, continued growth in enterprises’ labor costs, as well as second-round effects from the increase in fuel prices and the depreciation of the hryvnia in earlier periods," the National Bank said.
According to the NBU’s forecast, inflation will begin to decline in 2027, to 6.9%, and will reach the target level of 5% by the end of 2028, in line with the April forecast. This will be supported by a gradual reduction in budget deficits, easing pressure in the labor market, expected increases in agricultural harvests, and improvements in the energy sector as security risks diminish. The National Bank’s monetary policy measures will also play a significant role.
As reported, in January this year the National Bank forecast inflation in Ukraine at 7.5% for 2026 and 6.0% for 2027.
Ukraine’s inflation slowed to 8.0% in 2025 from 12.0% a year earlier. In 2023, inflation stood at 5.1% after surging to 26.6% in 2022.
