The Business Expectation Index (BEI) of enterprises in April-June 2026 rose to 107.0% from 105.8% in January-March, continuing to grow for the second consecutive quarter, reports the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) based on a survey of company executives.
"In the second quarter of 2026, businesses expected a revival of business activity over the next 12 months. Respondents were more confident in expecting an increase in the production volume of goods and services and were positively disposed regarding the development of their own enterprises," the regulator noted.
Survey participants improved their assessments for almost all components of the index, with the largest improvement seen in the total sales volume of own-produced goods and investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory. A revival of business activity was expected by enterprises in 17 regions and across most types of activities.
At the same time, after improvements in the two previous surveys, businesses worsened their expectations regarding the future number of employees.
Military actions and their consequences remained the main factor limiting the ability of enterprises to increase production. There was a continued significant impact from the shortage of qualified workers, and among other factors, businesses most expected an increased impact from high prices for raw materials and supplies.
Assessments of production volumes of goods and services in Ukraine over the next 12 months improved for the second quarter in a row: the balance of responses rose to 7.6% from 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026.
An increase in production was expected by respondents from 11 regions, as well as by enterprises in agriculture, energy and water supply, construction, transport and communications, the processing industry, and other activities.
Business inflationary expectations increased: the projected annual inflation rate was 11.6% compared to 11.1% in the previous quarter. 80.6% of respondents named military actions as the most significant pro-inflationary factor.
According to the survey, the expected average exchange rate of the hryvnia over the next 12 months will be UAH 46.12/$1 and UAH 54.42/EUR1, compared to UAH 45.00/$1 and UAH 54.00/EUR1 in the first quarter of 2026.
The assessment of the current financial and economic state of enterprises worsened slightly: the balance of responses was -5.1% compared to -4.7% a quarter earlier. At the same time, expectations regarding the financial state of their own companies over the next 12 months rose to 2.4% from 2.0%.
Enterprises in construction were the most optimistic, while those in the mining industry were the most restrained.
Respondents were more confident in expecting an increase in sales volumes: the balance of responses rose to 18.4% from 14.5%, and for sales in the external market – to 17.0% from 15.8%.
Growth in total sales volumes was predicted by representatives of all economic activities except construction, most notably in agriculture and the processing industry.
Expectations regarding investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory improved to 15.5% from 12.8%. The balance of expectations regarding investments in construction work remained positive for the second quarter in a row and rose to 2.1% from 1.6%.
Enterprises that attract foreign investments expected more moderate growth in their volumes: the balance of responses fell to 8.9% from 11.6%. The share of companies planning to attract foreign investment over the next 12 months decreased to 20.3% from 20.9%.
The balance of responses regarding the future number of employees worsened to -3.3% from -1.8% in the first quarter of 2026. An increase in personnel was predicted by enterprises in agriculture and other activities, while representatives of the remaining sectors expected a reduction, most notably in the processing industry.
Business demand for borrowed funds rose to 35.3% from 34.7%, and the share of enterprises planning to attract bank loans increased to 36.0% from 35.6%.
80.8% of potential borrowers preferred loans in hryvnia, compared to 83.5% a quarter earlier. The main obstacles to attracting new loans remained high interest rates and the availability of other sources of financing – 45.0% and 44.1% respectively.
The assessment of the stringency of access conditions to bank loans increased to 13.9% from 11.4%. The share of companies planning to attract funds abroad remained at 6.6%.
The survey was conducted from April 30 to May 29, 2026, among executives of 665 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine.
Among those surveyed: 20.9% – trade companies, 19.7% – processing industry, 14.3% – agriculture, 13.8% – transport and communications, 5.9% – mining industry, 5.0% – energy and water supply, 3.2% – construction, 17.3% – other activities. Large enterprises accounted for 30.5% of respondents, medium – 36.7%, and small – 32.8%.
