The overall level of illicit tobacco trade in Ukraine rose to 19.8% in April 2026 from 17.6% at the beginning of the year, according to the results of the second wave of the project "Monitoring the Illegal Trade in Tobacco Products in Ukraine," conducted by Kantar Ukraine on behalf of leading manufacturers in the industry.
According to data published on its website, nearly one in five packs of cigarettes on the Ukrainian market is illegal. Analysts have calculated that, given this level of the black market, annual losses to the state budget due to unpaid taxes amount to UAH 33.3 billion.
"The main factor driving this growth was an increase in the volume of counterfeit products, particularly cigarettes with forged excise stamps. At the same time, the volume of products labeled "Duty Free" or intended for export but illegally sold in Ukraine has remained stable since the beginning of the year, although it exceeds the figures for 2025," the study said.
According to the study's findings, 38% of the total volume of counterfeit products consists of cigarettes from local manufacturers with counterfeit excise stamps. The main producer of such products, based on the labeling on the packaging, remains Marshall Finest Tobacco (United Tobacco)/VK Tobacco FZE.
In the segment of products labeled "Duty Free" or intended for export but illegally sold in Ukraine, 55% of cigarettes are produced by Vynnyky Tobacco Factory, and another 44% by Marshall Finest Tobacco.
Geographically, 68% of the total volume of illegal tobacco products is concentrated in seven regions of Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk (18%), Odesa (11%), Kharkiv (10%), Kirovohrad (8%), Lviv (8%), Khmelnytsky (7%) regions, and Kyiv and Kyiv region (6%).
"The "tobacco shadow" has grown again. For the attention of the updated BES," Head of the Committee on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy Danylo Getmantsev commented on these results.
According to the study, despite a certain decline in sales of illegal cigarettes through kiosks, it is precisely kiosks and stores that remain the main sales channels through which about two-thirds of illegal tobacco products are sold.
Kantar Ukraine conducts the Monitoring of the Illegal Trade in Tobacco Products in Ukraine project on an ongoing basis. The study is based on the collection and analysis of empty cigarette packs, as well as interviews with smokers to determine the channels of supply and the origin of illegal goods on the domestic market.
