The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on Thursday decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 15% per annum, in line with market expectations.
"This decision ensures sufficiently tight current monetary conditions and takes into account lively demand for hryvnia saving instruments, as well as an easing of risks related to the war in the Middle East and insufficiency of external financing," the regulator said in a press release on Thursday.
The NBU specified that all other key operating rates also remain unchanged: the overnight certificate of deposit rate at 15%, the three-month certificate of deposit rate at 18.5%, and the overnight refinancing loan rate at 19% per annum.
At the same time, the NBU stated that it stands ready to raise the key policy rate if underlying inflationary pressure intensifies, in order to maintain control over inflation expectations and return inflation to the 5% target.
As reported, the central bank cut the key policy rate to 15% per annum at the end of January 2026 and has kept it unchanged at the subsequent two meetings. Before that, it maintained the rate at 15.5% for seven consecutive meetings beginning in March 2025.
According to the State Statistics Service, consumer inflation slowed to 8.2% year-on-year in May, while core inflation accelerated slightly to 7.9%. Both indicators exceeded the NBU’s April forecast, mainly due to the effects of earlier increases in energy prices.
The National Bank expects inflation to remain close to its current level in the coming months, accelerate toward the end of the year, and begin slowing again in 2027.
Price growth is expected to be restrained by an adequate supply of raw food products, while inflationary pressures will continue to be driven by higher business costs, the previous weakening of the hryvnia, and further wage growth amid labor shortages, the central bank said.
The regulator also noted that the volume of external assistance received in January-May was lower than expected. However, in June Ukraine could receive approximately $13 billion from individual countries and through the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) and Ukraine Support Loan (USL).
The NBU expects these inflows to help finance the budget deficit and increase international reserves needed to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.
The regulator identified the consequences of Russian aggression as the main risk to price dynamics and economic activity, particularly intensified attacks on production facilities, logistics infrastructure, and the energy sector.
Other risks highlighted by the NBU include the possible emergence of additional budgetary needs for defense and reconstruction, a further worsening of labor shortages, and disruptions in the regularity of external financing.
Risks related to the war in the Middle East have recently eased, while lower global oil prices should reduce Ukraine’s energy import costs and help contain inflation. At the same time, a prolonged conflict would increase inflationary pressures again and expand Russia’s financial capacity to continue the war.
The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee discussion preceding the decision will be published on June 29.
The next NBU Board meeting on monetary policy issues is scheduled for July 30, 2026.
