Ukraine's GDP declines 0.5% in Q1 2026 – statistics

Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 0.5% compared to the first quarter of 2025, following growth of 3.0% in the fourth quarter of last year, 2.1% in the third quarter, 0.7% in the second quarter, and 0.8% in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.

According to its data, compared to the previous quarter and adjusted for seasonal factors, real GDP fell by 0.7%, whereas a quarter earlier this indicator was positive at 0.7%.

As reported, the National Bank at the end of April lowered its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.3% from 1.8% in the January Inflation Report due to the still difficult condition of the energy system and the accumulation of negative economic effects from the war in the Middle East. The NBU estimated GDP growth in the first quarter at 0.2%.

At the same time, the Ministry of Economy estimated GDP decline in January–February of this year at 0.2%.

As reported, according to the State Statistics Service, in 2025 Ukraine's GDP growth slowed to 1.8% from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% contraction in 2022, the first year of the full-scale aggression.