NBU increases its current account deficit forecast for 2026 by 6.7%

In its April macroeconomic forecast, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its estimate of the current account deficit of Ukraine’s balance of payments in 2026 by $2.5 billion, or 6.7%, to $39.7 billion compared to the January forecast.

According to the updated macroeconomic forecast, the current account deficit is expected to be $49.4 billion in 2027, compared to $41.6 billion in the previous forecast, meaning the forecast has been worsened by $7.8 billion, or 18.8%, and $35.5 billion in 2028, compared to $29.1 billion, which is $6.4 billion, or 22%, higher than the January estimate.

At the same time, the international reserve forecast for 2026 remained virtually unchanged at $64.8 billion, compared to $65.0 billion in the January forecast.

For 2027, the National Bank lowered its reserve forecast to $66.5 billion from $72.9 billion, a decrease of $6.4 billion, or 8.8%, compared to the January estimate. For 2028, it lowered its reserve forecast to $61.1 billion from $70.6 billion, a decrease of $9.5 billion, or 13.5%.

As the NBU noted in a press release regarding its monetary policy decision, uncertainty regarding external support has significantly decreased after the European Union in April unblocked EUR 90 billion in financing for Ukraine under the Ukraine Support Loan program, the first tranche of which is scheduled for June.

In total, the National Bank forecasts the receipt of more than $53 billion in international aid in 2026, about $42 billion in 2027, and $22 billion in 2028.

According to the regulator, this level of external support will allow for the financing of critical budget expenditures and maintain high international reserves, which will support the stability of the foreign exchange market.

As reported, on April 30, the NBU Board, as expected, maintained the key interest rate at 15% per annum and revised its forecast path, expecting the rate to remain at this level until the second quarter of 2027.