National Bank worsens inflation forecast for Ukraine to 9.4% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its inflation forecast for Ukraine upward for 2026 to 9.4% from 7.5% in its previous January projection, and for 2027 to 6.5% from 6%.

"In the coming months, inflation will remain close to its current level but will accelerate in the second half of the year (to 9.4% by year-end) due to increased pressure on companies’ production costs, primarily as a result of higher energy prices, which has already occurred," the regulator said in a release on Thursday.

According to the NBU’s updated forecast, inflation will return to a downward trajectory in 2027 and reach the 5% target in 2028.

"Higher fuel prices will feed into inflation both directly and through secondary effects, which will impact the price dynamics of various goods and services with a certain time lag. However, the NBU’s monetary policy and the fading effects of elevated fuel prices will contribute to disinflation. As a result, inflation will slow to 6.5% at the end of 2027 and to the 5% target in 2028," the regulator said.

The National Bank added that it expects price stabilization due to easing external price pressures, a gradual increase in harvests, and improvements in the energy situation.

As reported, in January 2026 the NBU had already revised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 7.5% from 6.6% and for 2027 to 6% from 5%.

Inflation in Ukraine slowed to 8% in 2025 from 12% a year earlier. In 2023, it stood at 5.1% after surging to 26.6% in 2022.