Ukrainian cheese producers expect drop in demand, prepare for export challenges to Middle East – analysts

Sales of Ukrainian cheese ahead of the holidays were uneven: only those producers that offered effective promotional programs managed to increase sales volumes, according to industry analytical agency Infagro.

"Competition in the market remains extremely high due to constant pressure from cheaper European imports. After the holiday peak, producers are preparing for a traditional decline in demand and are therefore not rushing to expand production capacity," analysts explained.

The agency forecasts that amid persistently high prices, deep discounts will remain the key driver of sales in the coming months. A certain degree of pessimism among processors is fueled by price declines in the EU, which make imported products more attractive in terms of cost. Although imports of hard and semi-hard cheeses are increasing, experts do not yet consider this trend critical for the domestic industry.

At the same time, Infagro pointed to a certain decline in exports of semi-hard cheeses. The segment of cheese products (processed and semi-hard) is showing better resilience, with sales growth recorded. In addition to traditional markets such as Kazakhstan and Moldova, Ukrainian cheese products are actively shipped to the Caucasus and African countries.

"While export quotations for traditional cheeses remain stable for now, in the cheese products segment, after a period of turbulence, signs of price stabilization have only just begun to emerge," the agency noted.

At the same time, analysts drew attention to risks for exports of processed cheese products due to the unstable security situation in the Middle East.