Businesses improve their business activity estimates in Q1 2026 after prolonged decline – NBU
The Business Expectations Index (BEI) of enterprises in January-March 2026 rose to 105.8% compared to 102.1% in October-December 2025, breaking a three-quarter downward trend, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported based on a survey of company executives.
"In the first quarter of 2026, businesses expected a pickup in business activity over the next 12 months. Respondents forecast growth in the production of goods and services and reinforced their positive assessments of their own businesses' growth. Inflation expectations remained unchanged, while exchange rate expectations strengthened slightly," the regulator noted in a press release.
The NBU notes that military action and its aftermath remain the dominant factor (83%) limiting enterprises' ability to increase production. The shortage of skilled workers remains a significant factor. The impact of excessively high energy prices was expected to increase more than other factors.
According to published data, businesses significantly improved their estimates of production volumes in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses was 0.6%, compared to -1.8% in Q4 2025. Optimistic sentiment was demonstrated by enterprises in the energy and water supply sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation and communications. Negative sentiment was demonstrated by retailers, small businesses, and those solely engaged in import/export operations.
According to the survey results, business inflation expectations have stabilized: projected annual inflation stood at 11.1%, unchanged from the previous quarter. At the same time, exchange rate expectations increased slightly to UAH/$ 45.00 (versus UAH/$ 44.27 in Q4 2025). Respondents also provided their 12-month EUR exchange rate forecast for the first time, with the average value being UAH/$ 54.00.
Assessments of the current financial and economic situation of enterprises remain restrained, but the balance of responses improved slightly to -4.7% (-5.8% in Q4 2025). Expectations regarding changes in the financial situation of their own companies next year increased to 2.0% (0.8% in Q4 2025). Optimistic expectations were noted among transport and communications companies, as well as other businesses, while representatives of construction and trade expected the future financial and economic situation of their enterprises to remain at the current level.
Respondents are more confident in their expectations for growth in sales volumes: the balance of responses increased to 14.5% (from 9.6% in the previous quarter), and for sales on the external market, from 11.7% in Q4 2025 to 15.8% in Q1 2026. Expectations regarding investment spending on machinery and equipment improved – from 7% to 12.8%, and for construction work, they became positive for the first time in a year – 1.6% (-2.9% in Q4 2025).
Companies attracting foreign investment maintained their expectations for growth next year: the balance of responses was 11.6% (compared to 15.5% in Q4 2025). Energy and water supply companies had the highest expectations. The share of respondents planning to attract foreign investment in the next 12 months was 20.9%, compared to 21.5% in the previous survey.
The labor market continues to see a softening trend in negative estimates regarding the number of employees: the balance of responses was -1.8% compared to -3.8% in Q4 2025. Energy and water supply companies expected an increase in personnel. However, respondents in agriculture, mining and processing industries, trade, and other sectors had negative expectations, with agriculture being the most prominent.
Respondents increased their estimates of their need for borrowed funds in the near future: the balance of responses was 34.7% compared to 31.7% in Q4 2025. The share of respondents planning to take out bank loans remained virtually unchanged: 35.6% compared to 35.7% in Q4 2025. Those who do plan to take out loans traditionally prefer loans in the national currency – 83.5% (compared to 80.9% in Q4 2025). Excessively high interest rates and the availability of other funding sources remain the most significant obstacles to new loans – 44% and 43.4%, respectively. Furthermore, the influence of the factor "significant fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate against foreign currencies" increased by 4.3 percentage points, to 17.8%.
The NBU notes that respondents slightly relaxed their assessments regarding the stringency of access to bank loans: the balance of responses was 11.4% (compared to 11.6% in Q4 2025). 6.6% of respondents planned to raise funds abroad, compared to 7.1% in the previous quarter.
The quarterly survey was conducted from January 29 to February 27, 2026, among the managers of 664 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine. An index value above 100 indicates a predominance of positive economic sentiment.
Of those surveyed, 21.1% were companies in trade, 19.1% in the processing industry, 14.5% in agriculture, 13.9% in transportation and communications, 5.9% in mining, 4.8% in energy and water supply, and 3.2% in construction. In terms of size, 30.4% of respondents were large enterprises, 37.7% were medium-sized, and 31.9% were small.
