Carryover wheat stocks in Ukraine may reach 5 mln tonnes due to EU export restrictions – analysts

Ukraine’s wheat market is undergoing structural transformation due to restricted access to the EU market and reorientation of export flows to the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa), the UkrAgroConsult information and analytical agency reported.

"The introduction of an EU quota at the level of 1.3 million tonnes and weak demand have significantly limited exports, whereas previously Ukraine supplied 3-6 million tonnes per season to Europe. These changes are long-term in nature," the analysts said.

According to the agency, grain shipment rates have decreased significantly: while winter exports stood at 500,000-600,000 tonnes per month, in early March this figure fell to 350,000 tonnes. As a result, stock accumulation is becoming a key market factor — carryover wheat stocks could reach at least 5 million tonnes.

UkrAgroConsult identified the main trends of the season as the formation of a new market model in which the key role is played by increased competition and a shift in sales geography from European countries to more competitive regions.