EBRD lowers its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 to 2.5% from 5% due to continuation of war
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 2.5%, down from the previously projected 5%, due to the continuation of the war.
In its Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report published Thursday morning, the EBRD said it expects Ukraine’s real GDP to grow by 2.5% this year and accelerate to 4.0% in 2027, assuming the war continues throughout 2026.
"Its previous report had assumed a ceasefire and benefits from post-war reconstruction, allowing it to forecast 2026 growth of 5.0 per cent," the bank said.
The EBRD emphasized that Ukraine is maintaining macroeconomic stability despite Russia’s war. Real GDP growth, which was sluggish at the beginning of last year, accelerated sharply to 3.0% by the end of 2025, bringing full-year growth to 2.0%.
The bank specified that the economy expanded by 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter and by 3.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.8% in the first half of the year.
According to the report, prospects would improve substantially if a peace agreement were reached at the beginning of 2026. However, electricity shortages, labor constraints, and weak agricultural production continue to pose significant short-term risks.
