Wheat prices in Ukraine to increase until mid-March — analysts

Wheat prices in Ukraine will maintain an upward trend at least until mid-March due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and limited supply from producers, the analytical cooperative Pusk, established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC), reported.

"Due to logistical constraints, export volumes from one of Ukraine’s key competitors could fall by nearly half. As a result, global importers will need to source around 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from other suppliers, including Ukraine, Romania and France," analysts noted.

According to experts, a imbalance has emerged on the domestic market: traders are actively contracting grain while farmers are holding back sales. This is driving weekly wheat price increases of $1 to $2 per tonne. Additional price support factors include weather risks and the threat of winter crop losses due to frost.

Current indicative prices for food-grade wheat (11.5% protein) on a CPT-port basis stand at $215 to $220 per tonne. By early March, prices are forecast to strengthen to $220 to $225 per tonne.

Further price movement after mid-March will depend on the condition of winter crops and overall global market conditions, Pusk analysts concluded.