20:48 26.01.2016

Yatseniuk's Cabinet with key successful ministers will remain in office – political analyst Karasiov

3 min read

KYIV. Jan 26 (Interfax-Ukraine) – The incumbent Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers chaired by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk and key successful ministers will for now keep their posts and will continue work, Director of the Institute for Global Strategies Vadym Karasiov says.

"Possibly, there will be a certain reshuffle among the ministers, new posts will be introduced, for example, the vice-prime minister for European integration. However, the key ministers, who have proved to be successful against the backdrop of the government's failures and who have been conducting serious reforms in their sectors, namely Finance Minister [Natalie] Jaresko, Economy Minister [Aivaras] Abromavicius, Agrarian Policy Minister [Oleksiy] Pavlenko, will remain in office. In the first half of 2016 the government with the premier and the key ministers will remain and keep working, and major issues in a resolution of the looming parliamentary coalition crisis have been postponed until autumn 2016," he said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.

In Karasiov's opinion, Samopomich's statement on the withdrawal of Agriculture Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko is a consequence of political intrigues and misunderstanding of what needs to be done in the current "stalemate" situation. "Because the government is inefficient, no coalition can exist without it. And if there is no coalition, either a new coalition [has to be formed] or early elections [should be held]. As the People's Front is a key player in the coalition, it will not give Avakov and Yatseniuk up," Karasiov added.

Director of the Situations Modeling Agency Vitaliy Bala in turn pointed to the fact that Samopomich had given no reasons for the withdrawal of the minister in the mentioned statement. Besides, the party initially positioned itself as bringing new quality, the one that supposedly opposed the quota principle, Bala said, adding that by their statement Samopomich showed that it "was just like any other party."

According to Bala, one has to rely on Ukraine's agenda in the new year rather than on someone's names if the government is at stake. "If there are no early or snap parliamentary elections, then at the moment we need to have the government with new people having no political ambitions and belonging to no political party. Of course, our political elite won't agree to this. If politicians do not rein in their ambitions, there will be a parliamentary crisis, which will translate into an early parliamentary election," the expert said.

Political expert Volodymyr Tsybulko in turn says that since it has cleared up that the incumbent government and the coalition are getting exhausted, then each faction has started to develop its own scenario of how to avoid responsibility. "The Radical Party has abandoned the coalition on time, having Batkivschyna and Samopomich in a bind. The Batkivschyna faction has withdrawn into the shadows – it remains unnoticed, as Sports Minister Ihor Zhdanov alone cannot be the party's political face," Tsybulko noted.

"Having sufficiently promising and professional minister of agrarian policy Pavlenko, Samopomich has suddenly gone to war for Kryvyi Rih. They have got so much involved in it, that they found themselves in a certain stretch. To get Kryvyi Rih means to get long-term prospects, but at the same time it means to lose the post of the ambitious minister and the possibility of influencing the government and the coalition. It is a risky game. Even if the faction continues to insist on the withdrawal of the minister, he is not obliged to resign, and there won't be enough votes for that, and that is an extremely hazardous game, which will obviously take its toll on political prospects," Tsybulko said.

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