Reduction of corruption to EU average to allow Ukraine to have per capita GDP exceeding 50% of EU average in 2040 - IMF
If Ukraine is able to reduce corruption to the EU average, per capita GDP will exceed 50% of the EU average in 2040, compared to current 20%.
The econometric analysis is presented by experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"The results suggest that reducing corruption could substantially contribute to speeding up economic convergence towards the European Union," according to a study published after third review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of the IMF for Ukraine.
If Ukraine is unable to lower corruption, per capita GDP will still be only about 30% of the EU average in 2040.
If corruption is lowered to the highest level prevailing among EU countries, per capita GDP will reach about 40% of the EU average in 2040.
There are a number of international examples of successful anticorruption initiatives. Having started their transition with a similar GDP per capita in 1992, Poland, Romania and Latvia have since outperformed Ukraine, the IMF said.
"The three countries do not rank particularly high on anticorruption indicators in the EU but provide good references as they shared a similar GDP per capita at the beginning of the transition to a market economy… In 2015, the other three countries on average have a GDP per capita that is three times higher than in Ukraine," the IMF said.