NBU hopes IMF to decide on fourth tranche under EFF by late March
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) hopes that consultations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the revision of macroeconomic indicators after the blockade of trade with the certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions (ORDLO) would be finished soon and the issue to provide the fourth tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program would be settled by the end of March, NBU Deputy Governor Oleh Churiy has said.
"The postponement of the date of the meeting on Ukraine was linked to the necessity of revising [the macroeconomic indicators]. There is no interest to delay it," he told reporters in Kyiv on Tuesday.
Churiy said that information about the postponement of the date arrived to Ukraine on March 18, and on March 20 a first conference call was held with the IMF managers.
He said that the NBU has sent the preliminary updated indicators to the IMF.
He said that the next conference call with the representatives of the IMF is scheduled for Tuesday, March 21.
"We are in active dialog with the IMF in the past several days," he said.
Churiy said that the analysis shows a slight impact of the blockade on the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine this and next years. It would only slow GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points in 2017 and then the growth would accelerate by 0.2 percentage points in 2018.
Churiy said that in general, the share of companies in ORDLO in 2016 was 0.7% of Ukraine's GDP, while earlier the share of this territory was 15%.
Director of the monetary policy and economic analysis department of the NBU Serhiy Mykolaichuk said that according to the NBU's assessments, the blockade would also result in the reduction of industrial production in Ukraine in 2017 by 4.8% mainly due to a 20% fall in metal industry, but next year industrial production could grow by 1.6%.
Churiy said that the influence of the blockade on the balance of payment would be longer. It would add $800 million and $900 million of deficit for the current account of the balance of payment this and next year respectively.
Mykolaichuk said that the analysis showed that there are no grounds for revising the interest policy of the central bank now. More details will be presented after a meeting of the NBU board scheduled for April 13.