Analysts from public institutions and non-governmental experts within the consensus forecast in December 2015 improved the forecast for the growth of Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 by 0.1 percentage points compared to the September estimates, to 1%.

According to the updated consensus forecast promulgated by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, they estimate the fall in GDP in 2015 at 10.3%, expect its growth to accelerate in 2017 to 3.5%.

According to the document, the range of the GDP forecast for 2016 is from a 3% fall to a 2.9% increase, for the next year from the growth of 1.4% to a 4.1% rise.

Compared to the September estimates, the analysts worsened the forecast for inflation for 2016 by 0.6 percentage points, to 13.1%, expect it to slow down in 2017 to 8%.

The ministry noted that, according to the forecast, the average annual price of oil this year will be $53 per barrel, next year - $48.5 per barrel, gas will become cheaper to $234 per 1,000 cubic meters and $210 for 1,000 cubic meters respectively, steel prices will remain virtually unchanged.

The experts said that tariffs for hot water this year grew by 36%, next year they will grow by 20%, and the power tariffs rose by 38.5% and 10% respectively, and gas tariffs – by 20% and 15%.

According to the experts, grain harvest in 2016 will be 58 million tonnes, the discount rate would be 20% per annum at the end of the year, and budget revenue from privatization would reach UAH 5.25 billion.

The analysts predict that exports and imports would start growing in 2016 – by 4.9% and 3.9% respectively, with the acceleration of their pace to 5.7% and 4.2% in 2017.

The experts said that the surplus of the financial account would cover the deficit of the current transaction account by around 2% of GDP, while gross reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) would be around $17 billion in the next two years.

Among key internal risks of 2016 is the retaining of low credit activity of banks, growth of insolvency of the real economic sector and worsening of devaluation trends, as well as growth of inflation expectations, social conflict and a rise in the shortage of energy resources.

The escalation of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, a lack of external financing and withdrawal of foreign investors are among external risks.

The consensus forecast is based on the materials provided by experts from 16 various organizations and companies, particularly, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the NBU, the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, the National Institute for Strategic Studies, the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS), Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Dragon Capital investment company, CASE Ukraine and The Bleyzer Foundation.