12:47 27.04.2015

NBU predicts Ukraine's GDP will fall 7.5% in 2015

1 min read
NBU predicts Ukraine's GDP will fall 7.5% in 2015

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened its forecast for the fall in Ukrainian GDP in 2015 to 7.5% compared to its forecast of 5.5% announced in February 2015, due to a poorer economic situation in January-February than was expected, NBU Head Valeriya Gontareva has said.

"We believe that our economy has reached the bottom and from H2 2015 growth would resume," she said on Friday at the "Ukraine: Escape from Post-Soviet Legacy?" symposium held by VoxUkraine platform in Kyiv on April 24-26.

Gontareva said that price and currency stabilization will promote growth, as well as the restoration of consumer power.

She said it is expected that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 3% in 2016.

Gontareva said that NBU predicts that inflation in 2015 will be 30%, and the administrative increase of prices will contribute 13 percentage points.

She said that inflation could reach 5% in the three-five year outlook, including the switch to inflation targeting.

The key risk to the macroeconomic forecast and resumption of the economic growth is the escalation of conflict in eastern Ukraine, which could result in outflow of capital, devaluation, and inflation.

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