10:21 20.12.2014

Ukraine's real GDP decline to slow to 3% in 2015 – S&P

2 min read
Ukraine's real GDP decline to slow to 3% in 2015 – S&P

Ukraine's real GDP decline in 2015 will slow to 3% after a 7% decrease in 2014, and starting from 2016 Ukraine's economy will start to grow, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services (S&P) forecasts.

S&P projects that Ukraine's real GDP may demonstrate 1.5% growth in 2016 and further 2.5% growth in 2017.

Nominal GDP in 2014 is estimated at $127 billion against $178 billion in 2013, and it will fall to $99 billion in 2015, which is lower than in 2009 when Ukraine's nominal GDP stood at $113 billion.

S&P forecasts that Ukraine's nominal GDP may grow to $118 billion in 2016 and further to $141 billion in 2017, which will be a better indicator than in 2010.

Inflation, which is 23% in 2014, will slow to 11% in 2015 and 7-6% in 2016-2017 respectively, S&P said.

S&P predicts that Ukraine's fiscal deficit (including support for oil and gas giant NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank recapitalization costs) will decrease to 8.5% of GDP next year from 12% of GDP this year. In 2016-2017 it is expected to fall to 5-4% of GDP respectively.

Due to this, the general government debt/GDP ratio will go down to 79.6% and 78% in 2016 and 2017 respectively, after an increase to 80.3% in 2015 against 64.1% in 2014 and 40.2% in 2013, S&P said.

The rating agency also forecasts that the current account balance in 2014 will decrease to 4.1% of GDP from 9.3% of GDP in 2013. It is projected at 2.6% of GDP in 2015.

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